France: Following the threat of National Rally - Towards a New Popular Front government

Source: Braveheart

Lisbeth Latham

In the second round of the French National Assembly elections on July 7, in the face of fears that the far-right National Rally and its allies would win government outright, the New Popular Front won the largest share of seats. A key factor in this outcome was the decision by the majority of parties to limit the number of three or four-way contests that included RN, to give voters a clear choice between the RN and the alternative parties. However, the success of the NPF in the elections opens up new questions and challenges for the NPF and its component units regarding the formation of the next French government and how to relate to both this government and the presidency of Macron’s remaining three years in office.

You will find more infographics at Statista, 

 

RN candidates, who had reached the second round in 444 constituencies, received 37.03% of votes cast in the second round totaling 10, 110, 013 votes. Despite this, they won 143 seats (up 54 from their total in the 2022 elections) far short of the 289 seats required for a victory. While RN’s performance is being described as a stunning defeat, it represents a significant and continued advance for the party with nearly two-fifths of the electorate backing the far-right, and it was only defeated partly by efforts for France’s parties of the left and centre to make tactical voting against RN candidates easier.

A factor in limiting RN gains was the decision by both NFP and the pro-Macron coalition Ensemble to withdraw their candidates from three-way contests if they were the third candidate. Consequently, 216 candidates withdrew from the second round, 134 backed by the NFP and 82 from Ensemble.

Consequently, both NFP’s and Ensemble’s votes in the second round are distorted and do not accurately reflect their level of support. The NFP received 25.81% of the vote and won 180 seats (up 49 on 2022). Ensemble received 24.53% of the vote and won 163 seats. The final major block is the remnants of the traditional centre-right, The Republicans, whose vote collapsed to 5.41% in the second round, winning 66 seats, down 9 seats from 2022.

No block is an easy position to form a majority government. For a majority government to be formed, at least two electoral blocks, or significant parts of them, would need to unite. While there will be pressure from French capital for this to occur, most notably Ensemble, The Republicans, and potentially some or all of the centre-left parties, most notably the Socialist Party, within the NFP. This is a threat that John Mullen points out “The right-wing majority, aided by a strong media campaign, would prefer a coalition government, including parts of the left and right: including everyone, in fact, except the [France Insoumise] FI and RN.” Although it is unclear that a working majority would be able to be constructed by these groups. Alternatively, Romain Geoffroy, Adrien Sénécat and Maxime Vaudano argue other options would be a minority government appointed by Macron or a "technical government" of experts, which is common in countries such as Italy, and reliant on Macron’s ability, under cl 49.3 of the French Constitution, to push through laws without having a vote in parliament as long as there is not a no-confidence vote within the National Assembly. Unlike in some countries where no clear majority government, the French Constitution prevents there being a further election until those scheduled for 2025. In the wake of the election results Macron has asked the current prime minister, Gabriel Attal, to remain in place for the time being.

Faced with the likelihood of a minority government being formed the parties of the NFP, including the PS, are demanding that Macron “must immediately turn to the New Popular Front to enable it to form a government”. This government would have FI leader Clémence Guetté as prime minister. In the statement, the NFP argues:

“The results of the first and second rounds of the legislative elections confirm the failure of Macron's party. The French people put the New Popular Front and its program in the lead and thus prevented the victory of the extreme right, which was nevertheless presented as a given three weeks ago.

“This is the result of a tremendous popular mobilization that we want to salute and of the responsibility of all the voters who voted to express their rejection of the extreme right. It led to a record turnout. Even without an absolute majority, it gives us an immense responsibility.

“The New Popular Front is without a doubt the leading force in the new National Assembly. Following the republican custom in times of cohabitation [where the government is a different party to that of the President], it is up to the President of the Republic to turn now to the New Popular Front to enable it to form a government. If the President of the Republic persisted in ignoring the result of Sunday's election, this would be a betrayal of the spirit of our constitution and a democratic coup that we would oppose with all our strength.”

The need for workers and popular forces in France to mobilise both in support of the formation of not only an NFP government, but in support of the implementation of the NFP’s radical program, is clear. As the New Anti-Capitalist Party-The Anti-Capitalist put in their statement on July 9 “For all this, our social camp must remain united to fight, debate, organise and build a left of combat and rupture, bringing social progress, with a view to a revolutionary transformation of society, freed from exploitation and oppression”. This call for action in support and defence of the NFP is echoed in statements of France’s militant union confederations, which are part of the NFP, most notably the General Confederation of Labour and the Trade Union Solidarity.

Should Macron refuse to appoint an NFP government, any current mass mobilisations will have an important impact in resisting and pressuring any new government.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

This article is posted under copyleft, verbatim copying and distribution of the entire article is permitted in any medium without royalty provided this notice is preserved. If you reprint this article please email me at revitalisinglabour@gmail.com to let me know.

Read more...

France: Responses to the spectre of a National Rally government

Lisbeth Latham

As expected the far-right National Rally (NR) and its allies emerged as the largest party in the first round of the French elections - with the potential to form government in the wake of the second round of elections on July 7. Demonstrating the extent to which the elections are seen as an existential crisis in French life, with a turnout of 66.71%, the highest turnout since the 1997 elections. In response, the coalitions of both the left, centre, and centre-right have moved to try to limit the performance of NR by taking a strategic approach to the second round to limit NR’s final seat tally. While such an approach is important, it poses significant risks for the left parties.

Candidates of RN and its allies the Union of the Far-Right (UXD) received 33.21% of the vote, the highest vote in the history of RN or its predecessor the National Front. This vote was down on the peak of RN’s support in opinion polls leading up to the elections. Based on this vote, candidates of the RN and UXN were elected in 38 constituencies and qualified for the second round in 444 constituencies. Which would allow them to potentially win a majority of seats and form government.

The New Popular Front (NFP) emerged as the second-largest party receiving 28.22% and winning 32 constituencies outright, with 415 candidates advancing to the second round. While this was consistent with NFP’s performance in opinion polls, it reflected a significant advance over the constituent parties’ performance in the 2022 elections - where New Ecological and Social People’s Union totaled 26% of the vote.

In response to this performance the parties of the left have been clear that the key threat is RN, and have sought to limit the number of RN candidates that will be elected in the second round. "Our guideline is simple and clear: not a single more vote for the National Rally," said France Unbowed (FI) leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

If no candidate reaches 50% in the first round, the top two contenders automatically qualify for the second round, as well as all those with 12.5% of registered voters. In the run-off, whoever wins the most votes take the constituency. RN candidates have qualified for run-off elections in 298 constituencies in which three or more parties have qualified.

Based on this Raphaël Glucksmann, who headed the Socialist party’s candidates in the European elections last month, called for all the candidates who finished third in the first-round to withdraw in order to forge a united barrier against the far right.

“Are we ready to hand over our country – the country of Victor Hugo, of Voltaire, of Rabelais – to the Le Pen family?

“That’s the only question that matters. It’s become a referendum and that’s why we’re asking all the third-place candidates to withdraw immediately, and why we’re asking people to vote, unambiguously and unhesitatingly, for democratic republicans whether they be on the left or the right, in order to stop the National Rally. We have seven days to avoid a catastrophe the likes of which France has never known in its history.”

Supporters of President Emmanuel Macron, who received 21.28% of the vote, have generally endorsed withdrawing candidates where they are the third candidate in a run-off. However, they have not been consistent in doing so. With leaders opposing withdrawing where the first or second candidate is from Melenchon’s FI, on the basis that, as Bruno Le Maire, France’s Finance Minister said “For me, France Unbowed is a danger for the nation, just as the National Rally is a danger for the Republic”. Despite this 224 candidates have withdrawn for the second round, reducing the number of four-way races from five to 2, and the number of three-way races from 306 to 89. The number of two candidate races has increased from 190 to 409. RN will be pitted against the NFP in 149 of these, while 134 elections will see RN contenders run against candidates from Macron's supporters.

The withdrawal of the third candidates substantially reduces the chances of RN being able to form a government. This could create a situation where the Macronists are reliant on votes of either RN or the parties of NFP. This creates a significant risk of the left, particularly with the threat of the far-right, being pressured to support either directly or indirectly a government of “republican unity”, an eventuality that can only further strengthen RN’s claims of being the party against the failings of the political mainstream elite.

In this context, the key will not just be what happens in the elections on July 7, but what happens in the streets after. As the National Confederal Committee of the General Confederation of Labour (CGT) said in a July 1 statement, “Nothing is written. The CGT will do everything to prevent the worst and win social and environmental progress. Through mobilization in the streets and at the ballot box, the world of work can and must win!”

------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

This article is posted under copyleft, verbatim copying and distribution of the entire article is permitted in any medium without royalty provided this notice is preserved. If you reprint this article please email me at revitalisinglabour@gmail.com to let me know.

Read more...

France: New Poplur Front challenges the far-right

Lisbeth Latham

In the wake of the far-right National Rally (RN) winning the largest share of votes in France for the European Elections on June 9. French President Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the French General Assembly with new elections to be held on June 30, with run-off elections to be held on July 7. The announcements have sparked real fears that RN could form a government. However, in the face of this threat, France’s left and progressive forces are seeking to fight back both on the street and through the formation of a New Popular Front (NFP). This development has generated both hopes for the left and fears for business that the snap elections could usher in a united left government.

In the European Parliament elections, like far-right parties across Europe but most notably in Germany and Austria, the RN’s vote surged to 31.37% or 7.76 million votes. This result was a substantially improved performance in comparison with RN’s performance in the 2022 National Assembly elections (18.7%) and the Front National (RN’s name at the time) in the 2019 European elections (23.3%). The substantial growth in RN’s vote, along with the fall in votes of parties that support President Macron which collapsed from 22.42% (2019) to 14.52% (2024). Raising fears that RN would be in a strong position to win both the 2024 presidential and national assembly elections.

revitalisinglabour@gmail.com

Map showing the political alignment with the highest vote in different localities across France on June 9 - Brown being Far-Right

In response to the poor performance of his supporters in the June 9 elections, Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly with the first round of new elections to be held on June 30. In announcing the dissolution, Macron said “France needs a clear majority in serenity and harmony”, a reference to the difficulty that Macron has faced with his supporters not winning a clear majority in the National Assembly in the 2022 election

Given the very different momentums between the far-right and the parties of the centre. RN and its leader Jordan Bardella are seen as being in a strong position to win a majority and form government. Indeed, Bardella has repeatedly said that the RN would only form government in its own right rather than build coalitions with other parties post the elections.

This possibility has led to significant speculation as to Macron’s motivation in taking a risk in allowing RN to form a government. One is to place pressure on the traditional Gaullist right-wing parties, most notably the Republicans, to enter into a coalition with Macron’s Rennaisance to form a government to avoid the threat of RN, or that should RN form a government that it would be in a situation of cohabitation with Macron’s presidency, which would limit the ability of an RN government to implement its agenda, and Macron potentially still able to push through legislation without reference to the national assembly via cl 49.3 of the French constitution which allows the president to declare legislation passed unless there is a vote of no confidence in the national assembly. This would require RN not only to have the largest bloc but a viable majority in the Assembly. Supporters of Macron’s approach hope that this frustration of RN’s agenda would result in dissatisfaction amongst their voters, positioning Macron and his supporters to then win the 2027 elections.

While this approach has been seen as a potentially risky but brilliant gamble the real potential risks are not going to be felt by Macron, but by the broader French population, particularly the working and popular classes and France’s marginalised communities who have historically been the target of RN’s agenda. This reality reflects the deeply cynical character of the decision to dissolve the National Assembly.

In the wake of the dissolution of the National Assembly, Éric Ciotti, the head of the Republicans has made it clear that he is willing to consider entering a coalition with not just RN, but also France’s second far-right party Reconquest which received 5.46% of the vote. This announcement resulted in an outcry within the Republicans and a move by the party’s leadership on June 12 to expel Ciotti from the Party - a move that the Paris Judicial Court overturned on June 15. On June 17, Ciotti announced that he would lead a list of 62 candidates from The Republicans in alliance with RN.

Despite Ciotti’s actions the leadership of Reconquest has refused to enter the alliance. Marion Maréchal, who was elected to the European Parliament for the party, and the niece of FN Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, and the granddaughter of the National Front founder and long-time leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, led the negotiations with RN on behalf of Reconquest. However, when these broke down, she criticised party leader Éric Zemmourare accusing im of making too many demands, and announcing she would support the joint list between RN and Ciotti. In response Maréchal was expelled from Reconquest on June 13. Reconquest is standing their own list of candidates, but perfomance in opinion polls has collapsed to between 1-2%.

In the face of the European Election results and the dissolving of the National Assembly, there have been two linked responses from France’s left parties and broader social movements. The call for a united electoral alliance to attempt to achieve the best possible electoral outcome for the left and in parallel calls for popular mobilisations against both the dissolution of the National Assembly and the threat from the far-right.

On June 10, a call was issued for the formation of NFP to “carry a program of social and ecological ruptures to build an alternative to Emmanuel Macron and combat the racist project of the far right”. There were 11 initial signatory organisations including Rebellious France (FI), the Socialist Party (PS), the Ecologists, and the French Communist Party (PCF). While individual leaders of the PS initially rebuffed the call, this reluctance had changed by June 14, with Raphaël Glucksmann, the leader of the PS’s European Parliamentary elections ticket announcing his support. A contributing factor to this decision would have been the announcement by former president François Hollande, who had historically been close to Macron and had endorsed Macron’s previous presidential election campaigns, that he was supporting the NFP. Hollande has been confirmed as the candidate for the constituency he represented for 22 years prior to his election to the presidency in 2012.

The FNP’s agreed platform for the election includes:

• the abolition of Article 49.3 of the French Constitution;
• the introduction of proportional representation for elections to the National Assembly;
• organising a constituent assembly to prepare a new constitution for France, moving from the current Fifth Republic to the new Sixth Republic;
• supporting a retirement age of 60 and the repeal of the 2023 French pension reform law;
• introducing paid menstruation leave;
•  a 14% increase in the minimum wage;
• re-introduction of the solidarity tax on wealth that had been abolished in 2017;
• introducing a new tax on excess profits;
• increasing the Generalised Social Contribution paid by the richest taxpayers;
• free school lunches and supplies;
• abolition the Parcoursup University Admissions system - which limits the number of university places for high school leavers;
• supporting military aid to Ukraine, while committing to no direct French military intervention;
• recognising the State of Palestine;
• enforcing an arms embargo against Israel;
• introducing gender self-identification for trans people;
• abolition of universal national service

The announcement of the formation of the NFP has given significant hope to the French electorate with the NFP receiving between 26-29% support in national polls. This is close to maintaining the combined results that the NFP’s constituent parts received in the European Election of 31.58%. This consolidation of support makes it much more likely that candidates of the NFP will either be directly elected or reach the second round (when no candidate in the constituency achieves a majority of the vote. Support in polls remains consistently below the results for the RN’s polling of between 29.5-36%. The support for the NFP has given rise to concerned speculation in France’s mainstream media regarding the prospect of a NFP government, particularly one in which the FI’s leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon would be prime-minister. With open speculation as to the willingness of French capital to support a RN government. Hoping to curry this support RN has announced that it would back away from promises to lower France’s taxes on fuel, power, and the broader value added tax.

The urgency of the situation has seen the far-left New Anti-Capitalist Party-Anti-Capitalist (the NPA split in 2023, the other component is the NPA-Revolutionary) announce that it would participate in the NFP. Whilst the NPA-Anti-Capitalist is small, in several constituencies, particularly around Bourdeux, where it has local councillors, it could have played a role in diffusing the left vote. The NPA-Anti-Capitalist’s participation in the NFP is significant as it and its precursors have, whilst willing to participate in negotiations around the formation of united electoral efforts, stood apart from left-electoral fronts to a large extent since 2002. This refusal has been primarily based on a desire for the formations to adopt a clear position going into elections that it would reject a governmental alliance with the PS due to the PS’s record of social liberalism in government, that is neoliberalism with a social democratic face. In announcing their participation in the NFP, the NPA - Anti-Capitalist observed “in a few days, all the left-wing political forces, unions, associations and movements working on environmental, anti-racist, feminist and LGBT+ struggles, grouped around the New Popular Front. In a few days, it is indeed our social camp, that of the exploited and oppressed, which has reconstituted itself as a political subject to defend its rights”.

The NPA-Anti-Capitalist is not alone in adding to the supporters of the NFP. There are now some 53 parties, five union confederations, and numerous social movement organistations that have joined and supporting the front.

Since June 16 there have regular protests across France called by FNP and other left and progressive social and political forces. Whilst not at the level of mass mobilisation as has been seen in France’s past they are significant. The interior ministry estimated national participation in protests across France on June 16 at 250, 000, whilst the General Confederation of Labour put participation at 640, 000 with estimates of Paris protest participation being 72, 000 and 250, 000 respectively. The details of the 117 actions against the RN across France this week can be found here.

Irrespective of the outcome of the first and second rounds of the elections. The capacity and willingness of France’s left and popular movements to build on these mobilisations play a central role. In the lead-up to the second round of elections, this will include pressuring the parties of the centre and right to work against the election RN candidates. In the wake of the second round opposing any efforts to build a coalition with RN to form government. Finally in the face of whatever government is formed to struggle for the interests of working and popular classes and marginalised communities whether against a government of the far-right, centre, or in holding the parties of the left to the NFP program.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

This article is posted under copyleft, verbatim copying and distribution of the entire article is permitted in any medium without royalty provided this notice is preserved. If you reprint this article please email me at to let me know.

Read more...