France: Following the threat of National Rally - Towards a New Popular Front government

Source: Braveheart

Lisbeth Latham

In the second round of the French National Assembly elections on July 7, in the face of fears that the far-right National Rally and its allies would win government outright, the New Popular Front won the largest share of seats. A key factor in this outcome was the decision by the majority of parties to limit the number of three or four-way contests that included RN, to give voters a clear choice between the RN and the alternative parties. However, the success of the NPF in the elections opens up new questions and challenges for the NPF and its component units regarding the formation of the next French government and how to relate to both this government and the presidency of Macron’s remaining three years in office.

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RN candidates, who had reached the second round in 444 constituencies, received 37.03% of votes cast in the second round totaling 10, 110, 013 votes. Despite this, they won 143 seats (up 54 from their total in the 2022 elections) far short of the 289 seats required for a victory. While RN’s performance is being described as a stunning defeat, it represents a significant and continued advance for the party with nearly two-fifths of the electorate backing the far-right, and it was only defeated partly by efforts for France’s parties of the left and centre to make tactical voting against RN candidates easier.

A factor in limiting RN gains was the decision by both NFP and the pro-Macron coalition Ensemble to withdraw their candidates from three-way contests if they were the third candidate. Consequently, 216 candidates withdrew from the second round, 134 backed by the NFP and 82 from Ensemble.

Consequently, both NFP’s and Ensemble’s votes in the second round are distorted and do not accurately reflect their level of support. The NFP received 25.81% of the vote and won 180 seats (up 49 on 2022). Ensemble received 24.53% of the vote and won 163 seats. The final major block is the remnants of the traditional centre-right, The Republicans, whose vote collapsed to 5.41% in the second round, winning 66 seats, down 9 seats from 2022.

No block is an easy position to form a majority government. For a majority government to be formed, at least two electoral blocks, or significant parts of them, would need to unite. While there will be pressure from French capital for this to occur, most notably Ensemble, The Republicans, and potentially some or all of the centre-left parties, most notably the Socialist Party, within the NFP. This is a threat that John Mullen points out “The right-wing majority, aided by a strong media campaign, would prefer a coalition government, including parts of the left and right: including everyone, in fact, except the [France Insoumise] FI and RN.” Although it is unclear that a working majority would be able to be constructed by these groups. Alternatively, Romain Geoffroy, Adrien Sénécat and Maxime Vaudano argue other options would be a minority government appointed by Macron or a "technical government" of experts, which is common in countries such as Italy, and reliant on Macron’s ability, under cl 49.3 of the French Constitution, to push through laws without having a vote in parliament as long as there is not a no-confidence vote within the National Assembly. Unlike in some countries where no clear majority government, the French Constitution prevents there being a further election until those scheduled for 2025. In the wake of the election results Macron has asked the current prime minister, Gabriel Attal, to remain in place for the time being.

Faced with the likelihood of a minority government being formed the parties of the NFP, including the PS, are demanding that Macron “must immediately turn to the New Popular Front to enable it to form a government”. This government would have FI leader Clémence Guetté as prime minister. In the statement, the NFP argues:

“The results of the first and second rounds of the legislative elections confirm the failure of Macron's party. The French people put the New Popular Front and its program in the lead and thus prevented the victory of the extreme right, which was nevertheless presented as a given three weeks ago.

“This is the result of a tremendous popular mobilization that we want to salute and of the responsibility of all the voters who voted to express their rejection of the extreme right. It led to a record turnout. Even without an absolute majority, it gives us an immense responsibility.

“The New Popular Front is without a doubt the leading force in the new National Assembly. Following the republican custom in times of cohabitation [where the government is a different party to that of the President], it is up to the President of the Republic to turn now to the New Popular Front to enable it to form a government. If the President of the Republic persisted in ignoring the result of Sunday's election, this would be a betrayal of the spirit of our constitution and a democratic coup that we would oppose with all our strength.”

The need for workers and popular forces in France to mobilise both in support of the formation of not only an NFP government, but in support of the implementation of the NFP’s radical program, is clear. As the New Anti-Capitalist Party-The Anti-Capitalist put in their statement on July 9 “For all this, our social camp must remain united to fight, debate, organise and build a left of combat and rupture, bringing social progress, with a view to a revolutionary transformation of society, freed from exploitation and oppression”. This call for action in support and defence of the NFP is echoed in statements of France’s militant union confederations, which are part of the NFP, most notably the General Confederation of Labour and the Trade Union Solidarity.

Should Macron refuse to appoint an NFP government, any current mass mobilisations will have an important impact in resisting and pressuring any new government.

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France: Responses to the spectre of a National Rally government

Lisbeth Latham

As expected the far-right National Rally (NR) and its allies emerged as the largest party in the first round of the French elections - with the potential to form government in the wake of the second round of elections on July 7. Demonstrating the extent to which the elections are seen as an existential crisis in French life, with a turnout of 66.71%, the highest turnout since the 1997 elections. In response, the coalitions of both the left, centre, and centre-right have moved to try to limit the performance of NR by taking a strategic approach to the second round to limit NR’s final seat tally. While such an approach is important, it poses significant risks for the left parties.

Candidates of RN and its allies the Union of the Far-Right (UXD) received 33.21% of the vote, the highest vote in the history of RN or its predecessor the National Front. This vote was down on the peak of RN’s support in opinion polls leading up to the elections. Based on this vote, candidates of the RN and UXN were elected in 38 constituencies and qualified for the second round in 444 constituencies. Which would allow them to potentially win a majority of seats and form government.

The New Popular Front (NFP) emerged as the second-largest party receiving 28.22% and winning 32 constituencies outright, with 415 candidates advancing to the second round. While this was consistent with NFP’s performance in opinion polls, it reflected a significant advance over the constituent parties’ performance in the 2022 elections - where New Ecological and Social People’s Union totaled 26% of the vote.

In response to this performance the parties of the left have been clear that the key threat is RN, and have sought to limit the number of RN candidates that will be elected in the second round. "Our guideline is simple and clear: not a single more vote for the National Rally," said France Unbowed (FI) leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

If no candidate reaches 50% in the first round, the top two contenders automatically qualify for the second round, as well as all those with 12.5% of registered voters. In the run-off, whoever wins the most votes take the constituency. RN candidates have qualified for run-off elections in 298 constituencies in which three or more parties have qualified.

Based on this Raphaël Glucksmann, who headed the Socialist party’s candidates in the European elections last month, called for all the candidates who finished third in the first-round to withdraw in order to forge a united barrier against the far right.

“Are we ready to hand over our country – the country of Victor Hugo, of Voltaire, of Rabelais – to the Le Pen family?

“That’s the only question that matters. It’s become a referendum and that’s why we’re asking all the third-place candidates to withdraw immediately, and why we’re asking people to vote, unambiguously and unhesitatingly, for democratic republicans whether they be on the left or the right, in order to stop the National Rally. We have seven days to avoid a catastrophe the likes of which France has never known in its history.”

Supporters of President Emmanuel Macron, who received 21.28% of the vote, have generally endorsed withdrawing candidates where they are the third candidate in a run-off. However, they have not been consistent in doing so. With leaders opposing withdrawing where the first or second candidate is from Melenchon’s FI, on the basis that, as Bruno Le Maire, France’s Finance Minister said “For me, France Unbowed is a danger for the nation, just as the National Rally is a danger for the Republic”. Despite this 224 candidates have withdrawn for the second round, reducing the number of four-way races from five to 2, and the number of three-way races from 306 to 89. The number of two candidate races has increased from 190 to 409. RN will be pitted against the NFP in 149 of these, while 134 elections will see RN contenders run against candidates from Macron's supporters.

The withdrawal of the third candidates substantially reduces the chances of RN being able to form a government. This could create a situation where the Macronists are reliant on votes of either RN or the parties of NFP. This creates a significant risk of the left, particularly with the threat of the far-right, being pressured to support either directly or indirectly a government of “republican unity”, an eventuality that can only further strengthen RN’s claims of being the party against the failings of the political mainstream elite.

In this context, the key will not just be what happens in the elections on July 7, but what happens in the streets after. As the National Confederal Committee of the General Confederation of Labour (CGT) said in a July 1 statement, “Nothing is written. The CGT will do everything to prevent the worst and win social and environmental progress. Through mobilization in the streets and at the ballot box, the world of work can and must win!”

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